OK, we accept that the singularity may be coming. But the important question for some is, "How can I cash in?" Attacking this conundrum is the eminently qualified Peter Thiel, co-founder of PayPal and president of Clarium Capital Management LLC.
Thiel looks at how investing should adapt to a potentially all-or-nothing environment, where things can easily turn out "very good" or "very bad". Thiel makes the surprising observation that singularities are not necessarily a phenomenon of the future. Rather, we have already been seeing singularity-aware investment behavior for decades in the apparently accelerating cycles of booms and busts. Starting from the Japan-hype of the 80s, through the derivatives boom and bust of the 90s, on up to the internet bubble and the Web 2.0 overvaluations today, Thiel argues that not all of these were odd episodes of delusional thinking, but rather some may represent peaks of clarity, in which investors saw the paradigm-changing possibilities of technological developments, but simply bet on the wrong horses.
In this talk from the 2007 Singularity Summit, Thiel discusses how to profit from, or at least survive, the new world order and also relates some unexpected strategies to manage risk in a world where singularities can happen.
In addition to managing Clarium, Mr. Thiel is a partner in The Founders Fund, a venture capital firm he started in 2005. He has launched and provided the initial capital for several notable technology start-ups, including LinkedIn, Palantir Technologies, and Facebook, which over the last two years has become the sixth most trafficked site in the U.S. A frequent financial commentator, Mr. Thiel's market insights, opinions, and articles have been featured in The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, The Financial Times, Barron's, Bloomberg Markets, NPR, PBS, the BBC, CNBC, and the hedge fund press, and he has been profiled on "The Charlie Rose Show" and as part of an NHK Special. He also is the subject of a chapter in Steve Drobny's book, Inside the House of Money.
In addition to finance, Mr. Thiel is active in a variety of academic, philanthropic, and cultural pursuits. He serves on the boards of several think tanks, including Hoover Institution, Pacific Research Institute, and Singularity Institute, which studies the tremendous benefits and dangers of artificial intelligence. In 2005, Mr. Thiel co-produced the film Thank You for Smoking, based on the eponymous Christopher Buckley novel. He also is a U.S.-rated chess master.
Mr. Thiel received a B.A. in Philosophy from Stanford University in 1989 and a J.D. from Stanford Law School in 1992.
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This free podcast is from our Singularity Summit series.
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