Exponential growth, evolutionary change and the economics of supply and demand combine to create interesting patterns that continually reshape technology. In this panel discussion, Greg Papadopolous, CTO at Sun, IBM's Irving Wladawsky-Berger and Nathan Myhrvold of Intellectual Ventures explore the long term trends in networking and computation that are transforming the industry.

Papadopolous opens with an explanation of his "redshift theory" of computing which meshes economic theory with Moore's Law. The demand for computational capacity in some "redshifting" sectors of the industry continues to outstrip supply, while other "blueshifting" segments are over-served by Moore's Law doublings. As the supply of computational power grows, where will the future demands in redshift sectors come from? Papadopoulos predicts these expanding demands will drive the redesign of computing systems, with increasing returns from large, efficient computers and distribution networks.

Wladawsky-Berger engages in a thought experiment, comparing the growth of early biological systems to the current stage of computing. Once the basic building blocks of cellular machinery evolved long ago, the availability of standard components set the stage for a "Cambrian explosion" of intensive creativity. Computing, he proposes, is set for a similar expansion. Especially now, the internet brings the possibility of integrating people, process and information. Scaling is a still a problem, especially since humans are a non-deterministic part of the system. Still, careful analysis can teach us how to combine modular component, including humans, as we proceed with the transition from an industrial to a knowledge economy.

Myhrvold looks backwards and forwards at "visionary thinking" to find some old and new themes. For example, Moore's law has been a central idea in tech for quite some time, but we've recently turned a new corner with the advent of pervasive networking. It is vital to understand the real quality of exponential systems, that is, the most recent changes eclipse all those that have gone before. As computing grows by orders of magnitude, things that would once have taken a year, might now take an hour. The key to visionary thinking is to recognize and believe that such transformation can happen.