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The Commonwealth Club of California
San Francisco, CA
Apr 22nd, 2008
[A video version of this presentation with transcripts is available at Fora.tv]
In this interview Paul Saffo enters into the details of what he forecasts, how he forecasts, and the heuristics he applies to unearthing insights into the future. He speaks about forecasting methodologies, the differential impact of the mortgage crisis, upcoming areas of residential blight, the dissolution of nation states, and how computers unlock the relationship between where you live and where you work. Saffo marks out the nature of the indicators he uses to forecast the future and gives examples touching on Google stock and Gold prices.
Over the course of the interview Saffo discusses the history of recent scientific revolutions, the value of individual responses to Global Warming, the culture of interruption, how the US will follow Japan's lead in robotic adoption, and the importance of responding to and embracing ambiguity.
The interview concludes with questions from the audience.
Paul Saffo is a forecaster and strategist with over two decades experience exploring long-term technological change and its impact on business and society. Saffo is Chairman of the Samsung Science Board, and serves on a variety of other boards and advisory panels, including the Stanford Advisory Council on Science, Technology and Society, and the Long Now Foundation. He is also a Fellow of the Royal Swedish Academy of Engineering Sciences and has served as an advisor and Forum Fellow to the World Economic Forum. Saffo's essays have appeared in numerous publications, including Business 2.0, Fortune, The Harvard Business Review, and Wired.
Saffo holds degrees from Harvard College, Cambridge University, and Stanford University. He currently serves on the Board of the Institute for the Future and the Long Now Foundation and is also the Chairman of Samsung Science Advisory Board.
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