As the pace of innovation in cellular technology accelerates, LTE (Long Term Evolution) has three main challenges: the capacity crunch, increasing complexity, and finally, a band explosion. Rumney explains how problems inevitably arise in the gap between setting standards and operating a real network. As Agilent's lead technologist he offers an update and quick look ahead at trends in communications technology. 

Here's the problem, he says, high peak speed does not necessarily increase capacity. To achieve that you need to increase average speed. But there is a growing gap between average and peak speed. Today it is 10 to 1; in 2015 it could be 90 to 1. You could be operating networks at a small percentage of their potential. Rumney compares this problem to a fancy sports car stuck in bumper-to-bumper traffic. Peak speed means nothing. Actual average speed on that highway is a better predictor of arrival time. The system is theoretically able to support peak speeds, but in reality, you can't get there in commercial networks. 

LTE has to be economically viable, based on low-cost, low-complexity technology. In that context, WIFI is the alternative to beat. The experience of the end user, connections made, connections lost, these are the things that will make or break the future of 4th generation wireless cellular.

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